Timeless Threats! Appendix A: Probability

Posted: 2025-05-09
Last Modified: 2025-05-10
Word Count: 742
Tags: metasystem rpg

Table of Contents

This appendix breaks down the probabilities of all the mechanics used by Timeless Threats.

Diceless

Used by: Antigod, Deity, Devourer, Handler,

D6 Roll High

Used by: Aberration

Aberrations make all die rolls on a single six-sided die. If the difficulty is 6 or more, the Aberration must roll the twice and get sixes both times to hit. If the difficulty is 0 or less, the Aberration must roll the die twice and get ones both times to miss.

Difficulty ≤ 0 1 2 3 4 5 ≥ 6
Target Number 2+, 2+ 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ 6 6, 6
Probability 97.22% 83.33% 66.67% 50.00% 33.33% 16.67% 2.78%
Closest D20 DC 2 4 8 11 14 17 20

D12 Roll High

Used by: Phantom

Phantoms fade based on a d12 roll over the current value of their countdown clock. Below are their probabilities of them not fading.

Clock 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Target Number 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+ 10+ 11+ 12
Probability 91.67% 83.33% 75.00% 66.67% 58.33% 50.00% 41.67% 33.33% 25.00% 16.67% 8.33%

Depletion Dice

Used by: Time Gem

Time Gems have cascading “depletion dice”. Every activation the user rolls a d100; if they roll a 1 the next roll is on a d20, and so on through d12, d10, d8, d6, and d4. If they roll a 1 on a d4, the Gem is depleted; it stops working entirely.

In the best case, a Gem will operate indefinitely; in the worst case it will operate 7 times. The average case is somewhere between 160 and 80 times.

Percentile Dice

Used By: Relic Wielder, Time Gem User (Time Guardian, Time Thief, …).

Users of Relics and Time Gem have a percentile “Control” score which determines whether they can make their Relic or Gem do what they want. If the user rolls at or below the percentile, the Relic or Gem works; if they roll above, a Relic fights back and a Gem doesn’t activate. Special results happen on a Critical Success and a Fumble, which happen when the percentile dice show double digits in the Success and Falure range, respectively.

Below are the chances of a Critical Success or Fumble based on the percentile score.

Percentile Critical Success Fumble
01-10 0% 10%
11-21 1% 9%
22-32 2% 8%
33-43 3% 7%
44-54 4% 6%
55-65 5% 5%
66-76 6% 4%
77-87 7% 3%
88-98 8% 2%
99 9% 1%
00 10% 0%

Success Pool

Used By: Discarnator, Occultist, Revisionist.

Discarnators, Occultists, and Revisionists roll a pool of d6s or d10s to determine how many Banes they impose on a Timeless. Occultists use the same mechanic for researching the supernatural and performing ritual magic.

Below are probabilities for each number of Banes or successes as a function of the number of dice.

D6, Success on 5-6

TN 1D 2D 3D 4D 5D 6D 7D 8D 9D 10D 11D 12D
1 33.3333 55.5556 70.3704 80.2469 86.8313 91.2209 94.1472 96.0982 97.3988 98.2658 98.8439 99.2293
2 11.1111 25.9259 40.7407 53.9095 64.8834 73.6626 80.4908 85.6932 89.5951 92.4853 94.6049
3 3.7037 11.1111 20.9877 31.9616 42.9355 53.1779 62.2822 70.0859 76.5889 81.8877
4 1.2346 4.5267 10.0137 17.3297 25.8650 34.9693 44.0736 52.7443 60.6925
5 0.4115 1.7833 4.5267 8.7944 14.4846 21.3128 28.8997 36.8479
6 0.1372 0.6859 1.9662 4.2422 7.6564 12.2085 17.7722
7 0.0457 0.2591 0.8281 1.9662 3.8629 6.6448
8 0.0152 0.0965 0.3404 0.8823 1.8758
9 0.0051 0.0356 0.1372 0.3856
10 0.0017 0.0130 0.0544
11 0.0006 0.0047
12 0.0002

D10, Success on 8-10

TN 1D 2D 3D 4D 5D 6D 7D 8D 9D 10D 11D 12D
1 30.0000 51.0000 65.7000 75.9900 83.1930 88.2351 91.7646 94.2352 95.9646 97.1752 98.0227 98.6159
2 9.0000 21.6000 34.8300 47.1780 57.9825 67.0583 74.4702 80.3997 85.0692 88.7010 91.4975
3 2.7000 8.3700 16.3080 25.5690 35.2930 44.8226 53.7169 61.7217 68.7260 74.7185
4 0.8100 3.0780 7.0470 12.6036 19.4104 27.0341 35.0389 43.0438 50.7484
5 0.2430 1.0935 2.8795 5.7968 9.8809 15.0268 21.0305 27.6345
6 0.0729 0.3791 1.1292 2.5295 4.7349 7.8225 11.7849
7 0.0219 0.1290 0.4291 1.0592 2.1619 3.8601
8 0.0066 0.0433 0.1590 0.4291 0.9489
9 0.0020 0.0144 0.0578 0.1692
10 0.0006 0.0047 0.0206
11 0.0002 0.0015
12 0.0001